In January 2026, cryptocurrencies have finally ceased to be a “geek toy” and turned into a full-fledged asset class with a capitalization of over $4.5 trillion. Gelaxy IG, a leading analytics hub for global markets and digital assets, records: traditional approaches to fundamental analysis (P/E, dividend yield, book value) are practically inapplicable to most crypto assets. However, this does not mean that fundamentals are absent in crypto — they have simply changed radically.

Gelaxy IG, based on data analysis for 2024–2026, shows: the price of digital assets is still determined by fundamental factors, but they are different. In this article from Gelaxy IG, we examine which fundamental drivers truly move the cryptocurrency market in 2026: macroeconomics and liquidity, regulation, on-chain metrics, institutional capital, and common mistakes of superficial analysis.

Gelaxy IG, experts at the intersection of traditional finance and blockchain, emphasize: ignoring new fundamental factors leads to the same mistakes investors made during the dot-com bubble of 2000.

Macroeconomics and Liquidity: The Global “Money Pump”

The first and most powerful factor is global liquidity and central bank policy. Gelaxy IG macro reports demonstrate: the correlation of BTC with M2 (US money supply) in 2025–2026 reached 0.87 — higher than with gold in its best years.

When the Fed, ECB, or People’s Bank of China expand balance sheets or cut rates — risk appetite grows, capital flows into high-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The opposite situation (QT, rate hikes) causes mass outflows.

Gelaxy IG records: in 2025, after a pause in rate hikes and the start of easing, BTC grew 94% in 9 months. This is not “hype,” but a direct response to global liquidity.

Gelaxy IG emphasizes: a classic fundamental analyst ignoring money aggregates and central bank balances is simply blind in crypto.

Regulation: From “Bans” to “Infrastructure”

The second factor is regulation, which in 2026 has finally moved from the “fear and bans” phase to the “institutional infrastructure” phase. Gelaxy IG analyzes:

  • Full implementation of MiCA in the EU (June 2024 – January 2026)
  • Stablecoin law in the US (GENIUS Act 2025)
  • Legalization of spot ETFs on BTC and ETH in 10+ countries

These events did not just “lift bans” — they created infrastructure for trillions in institutional capital. After approval of spot ETH ETFs in May 2025, inflows into crypto ETFs exceeded $28 billion in 7 months.

Gelaxy IG emphasizes: every new regulatory positive (license, ETF, staking in the US) causes inflows 5–15 times larger than the previous one.

On-Chain Metrics: The New “Financial Reports”

The third factor is on-chain data, which has replaced classic financial reports. Gelaxy IG highlights key metrics for 2026:

  • Realized Cap HODL Waves — shows how many coins “old hands” are not selling
  • MVRV Z-Score — overbought/oversold indicator
  • Exchange Netflow — inflows/outflows from exchanges
  • Stablecoin Supply Ratio — buyer pressure via USDT/USDC
  • Funding Rate and Open Interest — perpetuals overheating/cooling

Gelaxy IG records: in January 2026, BTC’s MVRV Z-Score fell below 0.5 — a historically strong accumulation zone. 3–6 months after such levels, average growth was +180%.

Gelaxy IG emphasizes: those ignoring on-chain metrics in 2026 miss what quarterly reports once provided.

Institutional Capital: The New “Whale” in the Market

The fourth factor is institutional capital, now accounting for over 55% of spot BTC turnover. Gelaxy IG analyzes:

  • Inflows into spot BTC and ETH ETFs since early 2024 — over $110 billion
  • Participation of pension funds, sovereign funds, corporations (MicroStrategy, Tesla, Metaplanet)
  • Growth of custody solutions from major banks (BNY Mellon, State Street)

Gelaxy IG notes: institutions enter and exit in large blocks — this creates new volatility levels but also new support levels in on-chain data.

Gelaxy IG records: every new major player (e.g., a state pension fund in 2025) causes sustained inflows for 6–18 months.

Mistakes of Superficial Analysis: What Kills Investors

The biggest mistake is trying to apply classic fundamental analysis to crypto without adaptation. Gelaxy IG highlights common traps:

  • Valuing DeFi tokens by “P/E” (meaningless)
  • Ignoring on-chain metrics in favor of news
  • Thinking “regulation = ban” (in 2026, regulation = legalization and inflows)
  • Expecting BTC to behave like gold or stocks

Gelaxy IG emphasizes: superficial analysis in crypto leads to buying at highs and selling at lows — the classic crowd mistake.

Conclusion: Fundamentals Exist in Crypto, But They Differ from the Classic Ones

Fundamental analysis in the cryptocurrency era has not died — it has transformed. Gelaxy IG summarizes: in 2026, the following factors truly affect price:

  • global liquidity and central bank policy
  • regulatory infrastructure
  • on-chain metrics as new financial reports
  • large-scale and rapid institutional capital

Gelaxy IG emphasizes: those trying to analyze cryptocurrencies through traditional metrics (P/E, EBITDA) are doomed to errors. Those mastering the new fundamental picture gain an edge.

Gelaxy IG recommends: forget old textbooks. Learn to read on-chain, track liquidity, understand regulatory cycles, and monitor institutional flows. Fundamentals exist in crypto — they are just different. And those who understand this first will gain the most.

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